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San Clemente Annual Home-Price Growth is Overstated

But it's Still Very Good

Why do you choose to read real estate articles like this one?

Do you want to know:

  • What happened to home prices in your ZIP code for the 23 days ending December 4?
  • How much house you can get for $660,000 in other cities across the state with names beginning with “San?”
  • How much real estate agents’ incomes went up last month?

Not likely.

Odds are, you just want to know what’s happening to the value of your San Clemente home. Or what’s happening to the value of real estate you are thinking about buying in the future.

The old adage that the three most important considerations in real estate are “location, location and location” is true. National, state, county or even city statistics may not shed much light on prices in your neighborhood.

Usually. the most recent sale of a home comparable to yours, on your block, will give a general idea of your property’s market value. But a personal visit by a REALTOR familiar with the area should provide the most accurate evaluation.

In the meantime, according to data from the California Regional Multiple Listing Service, San Clemente’s home median sales price in November was $660,000, an increase of 16.8 percent over last November’s $565,000.

But don’t believe everything you read. Smoothing out the exaggerated saw tooth price pattern of the relatively small San Clemente real estate market reveals a more modest and realistic annual appreciation rate of about 6.2 percent. Still very nice.

But wait — there’s more!  Maybe you can make some money on this one. Bet your friends that December’s published annual growth rate for San Clemente will be an astronomical 20 to 40 percent or more. (You’ll have to average the rates of the two San Clemente ZIP codes.)

How can you predict this phenomenal performance?  Because last December’s published median sales price for San Clemente found itself in a deep crevasse between two saw teeth, so to speak. Even if this December’s prices stay even with November’s, the growth rate from last December should come in at 20 percent or more. And, unless smoothed out, that published appreciation rate will be greatly overstated.

One other thought: While November sales seem timely, they actually represent closed escrows that were opened around last August. In other words, you’re looking at buy and sell decisions made last summer.

It’s All About The Apps Department: There are free smart phone apps that purport to tell you the market value and other information about any home in the country by simply taking its picture. I’m using one myself. Unbelievable.

For the latest San Clemente real estate market trends, visit mcotter.com.

Charles December 17, 2012 at 04:00 PM
Realtor Spam.
Mike Cotter December 17, 2012 at 07:28 PM
Charles, thank you for your thoughtful insight.

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